The Future of SAF in Brazil Lies in Effective Risk Management

The global race to decarbonize aviation is already underway. The advancement of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) now depends on a new step: creating the conditions for projects to move from concept to implementation with certainty, scale, and the ability to attract investment. Produced from biomass, agricultural waste, and vegetable oils, SAF can reduce the carbon intensity of air travel while largely leveraging the aviation industry’s existing infrastructure. In this context, it stands out as one of the most promising alternatives for reducing emissions across the sector.

Brazil has a unique combination of attributes that could position it as a leader in this market. Its extensive experience in biofuel production, abundant feedstock availability, and significant potential for expanding the bioeconomy create a favorable environment for large-scale SAF production. This scenario becomes even more relevant as global demand for low-carbon solutions continues to grow and airlines and governments strengthen their commitments to reducing aviation emissions over the coming decades.

The central challenge is transforming this potential into competitive projects. The development of new industrial facilities, the structuring of supply chains, logistics, access to financing, and the evolution of the regulatory environment all require long-term planning and decision-making in a landscape still characterized by uncertainty. In a market that is still taking shape, investor confidence will be just as critical as technological capability.

It is in this context that risk management takes on a strategic role. SAF projects combine risks commonly associated with large-scale infrastructure developments, such as engineering, construction, and business interruption risks, with more sector-specific challenges. These include dependence on agricultural supply chains that are not yet fully structured for this purpose, environmental risks associated with land use and feedstock sourcing, and regulatory uncertainty in a market that is still defining its own rules. The earlier these factors are incorporated into project planning, the greater the opportunity to reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen governance, and enhance predictability for investors, lenders, and other stakeholders.

The complexity increases because these factors cannot be assessed in isolation. A change in the availability or price of a particular feedstock, for example, may impact the project’s economic structure while simultaneously putting pressure on supply contracts and the logistics required to deliver fuel to end markets. Likewise, technological choices made during the implementation phase may have long-term implications for costs, operational performance, and the ability to adapt to future regulatory changes. Identifying these interconnections during the project structuring stage makes it possible to evaluate scenarios, establish priorities, and define protective measures before risks turn into actual losses.

This assessment is equally relevant to relationships with investors and lenders. SAF projects require substantial capital investment and involve long-term return horizons in a market that is still developing pricing benchmarks, contractual models, and production standards. The clearer the understanding of the risks involved and the measures taken to mitigate them, the greater the confidence in the project and the more predictable its outcomes are likely to be. Risk management therefore becomes a core component of a project’s financial structuring, rather than merely a tool for protecting assets once operations have begun.

In this process, insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms play a strategic role. The design of these solutions must reflect the specific characteristics of each project, taking into account everything from construction and installation risks to potential operational interruptions, liabilities, and supply chain exposure. More than simply purchasing coverage, the objective is to understand which risks can be avoided, which should be mitigated, and which need to be transferred, ensuring that protection strategies are aligned with the project’s overall objectives.

Brazil already possesses the fundamental attributes required to become a leading SAF player, combining feedstock availability, biofuels expertise, and a growing bioeconomy. The challenge now is to transform this potential into viable projects capable of attracting investment and scaling up production. This path depends on the ability to identify, assess, and manage risks across the entire value chain. Risk management is not merely a safeguard; it is the key to enabling and leading the future of SAF in Brazil.